USD/CAD continued to struggle inside converging range last week. A breakout hasn't happened yet and we'll stay neutral first. As noted before, price actions from 1.0734 are viewed as sideway consolidation pattern, in form of triangle. Break of 1.0675 will argue that such consolidation is completed and rise from 0.9929 low is resuming for another high above 1.0851. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 1.0138 support and finally bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0138 support holds, we'd still favor the case that USD/CAD has made a medium term bottom at 0.9929 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Stronger rebound is expected after finishing the current sideway trading from 1.0734, towards 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 first, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement at 1.1866 and above. However, considering that USD/CAD cannot take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 1.0138 will shift favor back to the case that 0.9929 is not the bottom yet. Though, considering bullish convergence conditions in daily and weekly MACD, we believe that medium term decline from 1.3063 is going to reverse soon, probably after a brief break of 0.9929 low. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal even in case of another fall.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term sideway pattern.