USD/CAD jumped sharply to at high as 1.0493 last week but faced resistance from the near term falling trend line and retreated. Nevertheless, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0296 support holds and we'd continue to favor another rise. Above 1.0493 will target 1.0675 resistance next. However, below 1.0296 will dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 1.0106 support instead.
In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is still staying in sideway pattern in converging range. Nevertheless, such pattern should be close to completion. On the upside, a break of 1.0675 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 0.9929 low is likely resuming for another high above 1.0851. On the downside, below 1.0106 will suggest that another low below 0.9929 would be seen. But after all, considering bullish convergence conditions in weekly MACD, we believe that medium term decline from 1.3063 is going to reverse soon and focus will be on reversal signal even in case of another fall.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term sideway pattern.