USD/CAD's correction to 1.0246 last week was deeper than we expected by after all, subsequent break of 1.0493 high revived the case that rise from 1.0106 is still in progress. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 1.0675 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 1.0381 will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is breaking out of recent converging range, which suggests that rise from 0.9929 is possibly resuming. Break of 1.0675 will further affirm this bullish case and target 1.0851 and above. Also, note that this will also affirm the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063 is completed and will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 at least, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement of 1.1866. We'll favor this bullish case as long as 1.0246 support holds.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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