USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | May 05 2012 4:06 PM

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9799 accelerated to as high as 0.9962 last week. Current development, with daily MACD crossed above signal line, suggests that a short term bottom is at least formed at 0.9799. Initial bias is on the upside this week for a test on 1.0053 resistance. Break will argue that whole pattern from 1.0656 is already finished too and will turn outlook bullish. On the downside, below 0.9903 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations.

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In the bigger picture, current development argues that the consolidation pattern from 1.0656 has completed with three waves down to 0.9799 already, ahead of 0.9725 support as expected. Rise from 0.9406 medium term bottom is possibly resuming. As noted before, price actions from 0.9406 could either be consolidation to fall from 1.3063 or the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. In either case, another high above 1.0656 is anticipated and USD/CAD should reach 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803 and above.

In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. Current development dampens the case that fall from 1.3063 is resuming the such down trend. But there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions complete.