USD/CAD jumped to as high as 1.0009 last week before forming a short term top there and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen first. But downside is expected to be contained by 0.9741 support and bring rally resumption. As discussed before, USD/CAD should have completed at double bottom reversal pattern (0.9444, 0.9406). Above 1.0009 and sustained trading above 0.9912 will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9406 at 1.0299. Nevertheless, below 0.9741 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9406 instead.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.9912 resistance and 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.9918) is taken as a signal that a medium term bottom is already formed at 0.9406. This view is affirmed by bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Outlook is turned bullish for a test on key resistance level at 1.0851. Nevertheless, note that failure to sustained above 0.9912, followed by break of 0.9741 minor support, will dampen this bullish case and argue that down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.9406.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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