USD/CAD recovered after dipping further to 1.0205 and a short term bottom is likely formed there. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rebound but after all, note that short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0590 support turned resistance holds (50% retracement of 1.0991 to 1.0205 at 1.0598). Below 1.0282 will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 1.0205 will bring fall resumption to 100% projection of 1.1723 to 1.0631 from 1.1101 at 1.0009, which is close to parity.

In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no sign of bottoming in USD/CAD yet and the break of rising trend line in daily MACD is arguing the the fall is regathering momentum. Fall from 1.1723 is viewed as resumption of fall from 1.3063 to 1.0784 and is possibly developing into it's own five wave sequence. Next medium term target will be 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444. On the upside, break of 1.0590 is needed to be the first sign that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the deeper than expected fall from 1.3063 dampens the view that it's a correction to long term up trend from 0.9056 to 1.3063 and mixes up the outlook. Main focus now is on how the fall from 1.3063 will develop into. So far it's interpreted as having the first wave completed at 1.0784 and second wave completed at 1.1723. The longer term outlook will depends on whether it will unfold to be a five wave impulsive sequence, or a three wave corrective fall.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD