USD/CAD recovered further to as high as 1.0582 last week but lost momentum ahead of mentioned 1.0590 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.0991 to 1.0205 at 1.0598). With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. As noted before, short term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.0590/98 resistance holds and rise from 1.0205 is treated as correction to fall from 1.0991 only. Below 1.0377 minor support will indicate that such recovery has completed and flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0205 first. Break there will bring decline resumption to 100% projection of 1.1723 to 1.0631 from 1.1101 at 1.0009, which is close to parity. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.0590/98 cluster resistance will argue that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.0205 and stronger rally should then be seen towards 1.0091 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1723 is viewed as resumption of fall from 1.3063 to 1.0784 and is possibly developing into it's own five wave sequence. Next medium term target will be 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444. The bearish case will remain intact as long as 1.0590 resistance holds. However, note that break of 1.0590 will be the first sign that whole decline from 1.3063 has completed already. In such case, focus will be turned to 1.1101 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the deeper than expected fall from 1.3063 dampens the view that it's a correction to long term up trend from 0.9056 to 1.3063 and mixes up the outlook. Main focus now is on how the fall from 1.3063 will develop into. So far it's interpreted as having the first wave completed at 1.0784 and second wave completed at 1.1723. The longer term outlook will depends on whether it will unfold to be a five wave impulsive sequence, or a three wave corrective fall.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD