USD/CAD's rise from 1.0205 extended further to as high as 1.0846 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias will remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 1.1123 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0652 support will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back. But downside is expected to be contained well above 1.0205 low and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.0631 resistance and sustained trading above 55 days EMA indicates that a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205, with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD