USD/CAD dipped further to 1.0416 last week and recovered mildly since then. As the recovery was limited below 4 hours 55 EMA and 1.0593 resistance, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week. Below 1.0416 will bring fall resumption towards 1.0205 low next. On the upside, though, break of 1.0593 support turned resistance will suggests that the fall from 1.0851 has completed with three waves down to 1.0416. Bias will then be flipped back to the upside for retesting 1.0851 first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD