USD/CAD's rebound from 1.0416 extended further last week and the decisive break of 1.0593 support turned resistance indicates that correction from 1.0851 has already completed with three waves down to 1.0416 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.0851 resistance first. Break will target 100% projection of 1.0205 to 1.0851 from 1.0416 at 1.1062 next. On the downside, below 1.0614 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat, but downside should be contained well above 1.0416 support and bring rise resumption.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.
In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.