USD/CAD turned into choppy sideway trading after edging lower to 1.0405 last week. While the rebound on Friday's was strong, it's still limited below 1.0610 minor resistance and thus, there is no confirmation that fall from 1.0748 has completed. Another fall could still be seen and below 1.0434 will target 100% 100% projection of 1.0851 to 1.0416 from 1.0748 at 1.0313 to conclude the whole three wave correction from 1.0851.

Nevertheless, a break above 1.0610 will suggest that fall fro 1.0748 has completed and strong rally should be seen to this resistance first. Further break there will suggest that the correction from 1.0851 has likely completed and whole rise from 1.0205 is possibly resuming for 1.1101 resistance in this case.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD