With a second week of declines sending the pair further lower the past week, the risk is for USDCHF to weaken more in the new week. Although the pair continues to retain its medium term uptrend, its present correction has put that on hold and turned the risk to the downside towards the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21'2011 low. A clearance of that level will turn focus to the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08'2011 low. A halt may occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30'2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to break and close above the 0.9591 level to resume its medium term and shift focus to the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11'2011 high. Further out, a violation of there will allow the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07'2010 high followed by its psycho level at 1.0000 level. On the downside, the risk remains for the pair to decline further on further correction.
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