Forex Technical Update
USD/CHF failed to break below 0.93 and the 200 4H simple moving average, which would have opened up some bearish targets. Instead the market rallied above a couple of projected trendlines, and the RSI is now kissing 70 in the 1/5 US trading session. This might be a sign of some near-term correction, but the bullish momentum has been re-established, and a test of the 0.9546 high might follow a throwback.
The 1H chart shows a bullish market as the RSI pushes above 70.However, there is a bit of overbought condition as price trades at the upper bollinger band (3 standard deviations from the 200SMA). We might see a throwback. A conservative target for the throwback can be 0.9436, 38.2% retracement. 50% retracement at 0.9411 is also valid. If the market retraces lower, the 61.8% retracement at 0.9386 has a cluster of moving averages including the 200H SMA and would be a key level to hold for the bullish outlook to continue.The RSI should also stay above 40 and break back above 60 if there is continuation of bullish momentum after a throwback.
To the upside, 0.9690 represnets an important pivot, above which, we can be opening up the parity (1.0) level.