USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0328; (P) 1.0363; (R1) 1.0407; More

As noted before, USD/CHF's made a short term top at 1.8506 and consolidations from there is still in progress. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.9959 to 1.0506 at 1.0297 and below. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1.0175 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9959 to 1.0506 at 1.0168) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.0403 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Break of 1.0506 will target medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1078). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.


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