Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0321; (P) 1.0354; (R1) 1.0381; More

With 1.0403 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside. Correction from 1.0506 is still in progress and might extend beyond 38.2% retracement of 0.9959 to 1.0506 at 1.0297. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1.0175 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9959 to 1.0506 at 1.0168) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.0403 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Break of 1.0506 will target medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1078). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.


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