Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0388; (P) 1.0441; (R1) 1.0481;

USD/CHF retreats after hitting 1.0494 and break of 1.0418 minor support indicates that an intraday top is formed. Bias is turned neutral and some consolidations should now be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption. As noted before, rise from 1.0131 is treated as resumption of whole rally from 0.9916 after correction from 1.0506 has completed there. Break of 1.0506 will confirm this bullish case and target medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1005). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9916 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.

USD/CHF