USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF's rally extends further to as high as 1.0553 so far and the break of 1.5060 resistance confirm our view that whole rally from 0.9919 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next. On the downside, however, below 1.0445 minor support will argue that a short term top might be in place, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, in such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 1.0367 support or below.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.0996). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 1.0131 support will dampen this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for another low below 0.9916.