USD/CHF: Stalking Consolidation

dtu_040910_usdchf

 

  • Weekly and Daily: The USD/CHF has been in consolidation since February. We see in the weekly, a series of indecisive candlesticks.
  • The daily shows this in more detail. The market broke below a rounded top, and now has entered into sideways action.
  • Very simple anticipation here: Break above 1.08 = bullish signal towards 1.12, though 1.10 is final test of possible exhaustion. So 1.10 is a short-term target, while 1.12 is an intermediate one if the market breaks above 1.08.
  • Break below 1.04 = bearish signal towards 1.00.
  • We see that a decline is starting, so in the near and short-term (to start next week, look for the market to test 1.04/1.05.

dtu_040910_usdchf4h

  • 4H: The 4H chart shows a strong bearish attempt materializing in the near-term. If the market breaks below 1.06 (61.8% retracement), it is very likely that it will continue to test 1.04/1.05. In fact, there may even be support at 1.0630 (50% retracement).
  • Still, it makes more sense to look at the important trendlines in the daily frame as the market closes in on the apex of a congestion pattern.