Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       ECB Monthly Report

The European Central Bank's (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's perspective.

13:30     USD      Building Permits                                             0.68M                   0.67M

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.                    

 13:30    USD       Core PPI (MoM)                                               0.1%                      0.3%     

13:30     USD       PPI (MoM)                                                         0.3%                      -0.1%    

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.                

13:30     USD       Housing Starts                                                  0.68M                   0.66M    

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector    

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                      364K                      358K                     

13:30    USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                           3550K                    3515K

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

14:00     USD      Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC                                                        

15:00     USD      Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index       8.4                         7.3                                                         

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9232 up from mid day trading, the pair dropped earlier in the day, but as the day progressed fears and worries about Greece pushed the USD to seek a higher level. The pair was trading at 0.9166 until the market sentiment turned and the pair have moved up steadily.

There was little news in Switzerland today but a huge amount of data out in the US.

U.S. industrial production was flat in January, but the increase in December was much larger than first reported, according to the Federal Reserve.

Last month, industrial production was unchanged, as a 0.7% increase among manufacturers was offset by sharp declines in mining and utilities, data from the U.S. central bank showed Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast industrial production to climb 0.8%.

Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes climbed in February for the fifth straight month to reach the highest level in more than four years, according to a survey released Wednesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 in February from 25 in January, meaning the gauge has more than doubled since September.

News that only a few of the Federal Open Market Committee favored another round of quantitative easing, or QE3, according to minutes of the last meeting released Wednesday. Others on the Fed's interest rate setting body indicated that QE3 could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below the 2% target for a long time, the minutes show. A majority on the FOMC thought that sales of assets on its balance sheet would start no earlier than 2015.

The USD should remain strong over the course of the day. There are several reports due on Thursday in the US, that will effect the USD.

Wednesday Economic Data actual v. forecast

AUD

 

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)

1.3%

 
 
 

-2.7%

 
 

KRW

 

South Korean Trade Balance

-2.03B

 
 
 

-1.96B

 
 

JPY

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

SGD

 

Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY)

4.2%

 

7.0%

 

6.2%

 
 

EUR

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.3%

 
 

EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3%

 

0.6%

 
 

EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY)

2.0%

 

2.0%

 

2.4%

 
 

SEK

 

Swedish GDP (QoQ) 

3.4%

 

2.1%

 

3.0%

 
 

HUF

 

Hungarian GDP (YoY) 

1.4%

 

0.5%

 

1.4%

 
 

CZK

 

Czech GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.7%

 

1.2%

 
 

EUR

 

Austrian GDP (YoY)

1.2%

 
 
 

2.5%

 
 

EUR

 

Netherlands GDP (YoY) 

-0.7%

 

0.3%

 

1.1%

 
 

EUR

 

Italian GDP (QoQ) 

-0.7%

 

-0.6%

 

-0.2%

 
 

GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

2.0%

 

1.8%

 

2.0%

 
 

GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

6.9K

 

3.2K

 

1.9K

 
 

GBP

 

Unemployment Rate

8.4%

 

8.4%

 

8.4%

 
 

EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4%

 

0.1%

 
 

EUR

 

Trade Balance

7.5B

 

4.7B

 

6.1B

 
 

CHF

 

ZEW Expectations

-21.2

 
 
 

-50.1

 
 

MYR

 

Malaysian GDP (YoY) 

5.2%

 

4.5%

 

5.8%

 
 

GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

GBP

 

BoE Gov King Speaks

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

USD

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-1.0%

 
 
 

7.5%

 
 

PLN

 

Polish CPI (YoY)

4.1%

 

4.3%

 

4.6%

 
 

USD

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

19.5

 

14.2

 

13.5

 
 

USD

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

17.9B

 

62.3B

 

61.3B

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17

Feb 16  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Feb 16  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16  10:50  France  BTA/OATi auction

Feb 16  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y TIPS

USD/CHF Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.9082
0.9118
0.9178
0.9214
0.9274
0.9310
0.9370

Fibonacci
0.9118
0.9155
0.9178
0.9214
0.9251
0.9274
0.9310

Camarilla
0.9211
0.9219
0.9228
0.9214
0.9246
0.9255
0.9263

Woodie's
-
0.9124
0.9189
0.9220
0.9285
0.9316
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.9292
0.9224
0.9196
-
-