USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 27, 2012, Forecast

 
on February 24 2012 1:01 PM

Economic Events: (GMT)

Monday will be a relatively quiet day for economic data

07:00     EUR       GfK German Consumer Climate

The Gfk German Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                                           

10:30     CHF       KOF Leading Indicators                 

The KOF Leading Indicators Index is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months. The index is a composite reading of 12 economic indicators related to banking confidence, production, new orders, consumer confidence and housing.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.            

 11:00    GBP      CBI Distributive Trades Survey

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey covering 20,000 firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.             

15:00     USD       Pending Home Sales (MoM)

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                                           

width=150Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.8952, the U.S. dollar is plunged against its trading partners as the euro shot up to about three months as investors eyed next week's long-term liquidity operation by the European Central Bank as a cue to bet on riskier assets.

Liquidity combined with a willingness to turn a blind-eye to Greek problems is helping fuel this rally not only in stocks but in peripheral bond yields and also in the euro

The sale of new single-family homes in the U.S. fell slightly in January, but only because sales in December were revised higher. Taken together, sales in those two months were the strongest in a year, a good sign for a market that's been in a deep slump since the 2007-2009 recessions.

Consumer sentiment rose in February to the highest level in a year on strong awareness of improving employment, according to a gauge released Friday by the University of Michigan

Consumer sentiment rose to 75.3 in February from 75 in January, achieving a sixth month of improvement. Consumers' expectations rose to 70.3 from 69.1, while their views on current conditions declined to 83 from 84.2.

In the UK today Q4 2nd Estimate GDP -0.2% q/q; +0.7% y/y LONDON (MNI) - Household spending rose for the first time in over a year in the fourth quarter and net exports boosted growth, but these were offset by a large fall in investment spending, figures from National Statistics showed Friday

In Italy today retail sales fell 1.1% m/m in December in SA nominal terms, and dropped an unadjusted 3.7% y/y, down from -1.8% y/y in November and the worst y/y fall since March 2009 (-4.2%). -Food sales fell 1.0 m/m; non-food sales fell 1.2% m/m. -Italy 2011 full-year average unadjusted. Retail sales -1.3% (+0.2% in 2009)

In France today February consumer confidence up 82; January 81 (unrevised) -Matches expectations; MNI analysts survey median forecast 82 -Buying-propensity up 5 points -Future inflation worries down 2 points -Jobless fears down 1 point

February 24, 2012 Economic Results actual v. forecast

 
 

 SGD

 
 
 

Singaporean Industrial Production (YoY) 

-8.8%

 

-1.6%

 

12.6%

 
 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 
 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

French Consumer Confidence 

82

 

82

 

81

 
 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Spanish PPI (YoY) 

3.6%

 

4.7%

 

5.2%

 
 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Retail Sales (MoM) 

-1.1%

 

-0.2%

 

-0.7%

 
 

 
 

GBP

 
 
 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-5.6%

 

-0.4%

 

1.0%

 
 

 
 

GBP

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 
 

 
 

GBP

 
 
 

Index of Services 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.2%

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 27-Mar 02 n/a  UK  Mini Tender

Feb 27  10:10  Italy   BOT auction

Feb 27  10:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn Feb 2013 Bubill

Feb 27  11:00  Belgium  OLO Auction

Feb 27  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on May 05

Feb 28  01:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28  15:30  UK  Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

USD/CHF Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.8781
0.8859
0.8900
0.8978
0.9019
0.9097
0.9138

Fibonacci
0.8859
0.8904
0.8933
0.8978
0.9023
0.9052
0.9097

Camarilla
0.8908
0.8919
0.8930
0.8978
0.8952
0.8963
0.8974

Woodie's
-
0.8850
0.8882
0.8969
0.9000
0.9088
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.8998
0.8968
0.8880
-
-

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