Economic Events: (GMT)

00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -32 -33

 Gfk Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A reading above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00 CHF Consumption Indicator 0.81

The UBS Consumption Indicator is a leading indicator of private consumption trends. This indicator is a combined reading of five indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF. Due to the current situation of the Swissie this report will be important this week.

 07:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% -1.0%

German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                             

 07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%

07:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.4%

French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                            

08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 6.8% 6.8%

 08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -7K -22K

The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month.

German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.                               

 09:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.7% 8.6%

The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market.

09:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) 0.0% 0.1%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

 Tenta EUR Spanish Business Confidence -21 -20

Business Confidence rates the current level of business conditions. It helps to analyze the economic situation in the short term. A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

                                

 09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) 0.3% -0.6%

 09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K

 09:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals 1.2B 1.0B

M4 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.

Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month by the Bank of England. The data tends to have a limited impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier.

Net lending to individuals measures the change in the total value of new credit extended to consumers. It is closely correlated with consumer spending and confidence.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                 

 10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.

13:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) 0.4% 0.3%

The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

14:45 USD Chicago PMI 63.0 62.5

15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.2 64.5

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.            

 

USD/CHF

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis Jan. 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9185

The USD has powered up against all its trading partners, even after dissappointing economic data the end of last week, today seems to be all about the worries from Greece. The deal still is not done and no one knows why. The EU Summit is convening and the Greek negotiators are still in Athens without an agreement to present.

On the horizon are a lot of economic reports effecting both the EU and the US. Germany and France are expected to be the power that pulls Europe from the midst of a recession and the EU is hoping that the German and French reports this week are positive.

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Jan 31 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Jan 31 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 07

Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill

Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt

Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08

Feb 01 16:00 US

Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb

08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09

Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction

Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029

USD/CHF Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 Name  S3  S2  S1  Pivot  R1  R2  R3

 Classic
0.9045
0.9085
0.9131
0.9171
0.9217
0.9257
0.9303

 Fibonacci
0.9085
0.9118
0.9138
0.9171
0.9204
0.9224
0.9257

 Camarilla
0.9153
0.9161
0.9169
0.9171
0.9185
0.9193
0.9201

 Woodie's
-
0.9086
0.9134
0.9172
0.9220
0.9258
-

 DeMark's
-
-
0.9237
0.9181
0.9151
-
-