USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

In spite of the brief break of 1.0378 minor resistance, USD/CHF failed to sustain above and subsequent sharp fall suggests that choppy correction from 1.0506 is still in progress. Another fall to 1.0243 and below cannot be ruled out. But after all, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0378 minor resistance will indicate that such correction has possibly completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0506 will confirm that whole rise from 0.9916 has resumed for 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.

USD/CHF recovers strongly from 1.0243 but after all, 1.0378 resistance is still intact. Correction from 1.0506 might still extend further. But even in case of another fall, downside is still expected to be contained by 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0378 minor resistance will indicate that such correction has possibly completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0506 will confirm that whole rise from 0.9916 has resumed for 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.