USDCHF: While we retain our medium term upside outlook on the pair, we are beginning to see some signs of price exhaustion at higher level prices. With a failure to maintain above 1.0896 level seeing USDCHF declining sharply lower on Feb 19'10 and another one occurring on Tuesday to form a shooting star candle (top reversal signal), risk is slowly turning lower towards its Feb 26'10 low at 1.0692. On a decisive violation of that level, we should see further downside towards the 1.0645 level where its Feb 17'10 is located with a breach of there turning focus towards the 1.0607 level, its Feb 09'10 low. We expect a halt in price here to turn the pair back up again in line with its broader medium term uptrend triggered off the 0.9910 level in Nov'09.Its daily stochasticswhich has turned lower is supportive this downside view. Alternatively, in order for the pair to reverse its current downside vulnerability, it must break and hold above the 1.0896 level to increase risk of further upside gains towards its July 26'09 high at 1.0933 and next its July 21'09 high at 1.1021. On the while, though biased to the upside in the medium term, corrective downside risk has started building up suggesting lower level prices could targeted in the days ahead.
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