The pair reversed most of its previous week losses to close strongly higher the past week and turning risk to the upside as we enter a new week. Despite this, the pair still remains vulnerable to the downside while holding below the 0.9783 level. To completely reverse this vulnerability USDCHF will have to break and hold above the 0.9783 level. This will call for a move higher towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 08'2010 high, and then the 1.0066 level, its Dec 01'2010 high, where a cap is likely to occur. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. On the downside, below the 0.9327 level will annul its last week gains and bring further weakness towards the 0.9200 level and then the 0.9100 level. All in all, immediate risk remains higher though retaining its long-term downtrend bias.
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