Rules: The pair tends to break to an all-time low, and then range back to the previous low. The ranges are very distinct. A break to the upside will likely meet another previous low. Pair is reliable.

  • Global stability and global recovery will send USD/CHF higher
  • USD/CHF rallies on geopolitical instability

Analysis and Recommendations:

USD/CHF is climbing at 0.9140 as the USD gains momentum. As the week opened the USD was down against its trading partners, with the euro hitting short term record highs. Oil and Gold were climbing steadily. Midweek the barometer began to change with worries in the eurozone, the USD gained strength against all of its partners. Strong economic data as well as a drop in Oil and Gold allowed the Dollar to continue to grow. The Swissie simply held on for the ride.

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised.

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

News from the Eurozone

This week starts off with an agreement on the Greek bailout and approval from the EU, ECB and IMF. Greece passes a major hurdle and now needs to complete their agreement with the IIF.

There are worries about the CDS swaps triggering a credit event, at first, the initial ruling ruled that there would be no credit event, but it turns out that ruling was on a very small question concerning the ECB, it seems now that now that Greece has passed the new laws so they can force bondholders to accept the agreement, it will now trigger a credit event and CDS insurance will have to payout.

The ECB, liquidity operation, although successful, loans funds to over 800 banks, in excess of 500 billion euros. Markets are now worried about the consequences.

Spain reported that they will miss their budget deficit target this year, but still remain on track for 2013.

The EU approved the next tranche for Portugal.

The G20 meeting in Mexico ended without any results with non euro nations saying that the eurozone needs to pick up their game and show their money before any others would consider participating.

The EU Summit this past week went off quietly without much in the way of announcements.

Consumer confidence European Commission's consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in February. Consumer confidence rose from -20.7 to -20.2, marginally weaker than expected (-20.1).

Industrial new orders  Euro zone industrial new orders rebounded by 1.9% M/M in December, while only a moderate pick up was expected.

IFO business climate indicator The German IFO index rose for a fourth consecutive month in February. The indicator jumped from 108.3 to 109.6, while a more moderate increase was expected.

Manufacturing PMI Euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its rebound in February, rising for a third consecutive month, but at a slower pace. Services PMI After three consecutive increases, euro zone services PMI fell back in February, from 50.4 to 49.4, while a slight increase was expected.

In January, the euro zone unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The unemployment rate jumped from an upwardly revised 10.6% (earlier reported as 10.4%) to 10.7%, while the consensus was looking for stabilization at 10.4%. Eurostat estimates that the number of people unemployed rose by 185 000 in the euro area in January, to a total level of 16.925 million. The highest unemployment rates were observed in the Spain (23.3%), Greece (19.9% in November), Ireland and Portugal (both 14.8%). The youth unemployment rate (under 25) was 21.6% in the euro zone. The euro zone unemployment rate is now at the highest level since October 1997 and is just 0.2% below its all time high, suggesting that a jump above the all-time highs is not excluded in the coming months.

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Historical

Highest: 1.1664 CHF on 07 Jun 2010.

Average: 0.9699 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 0.7224 CHF on 09 Aug 2011.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Only Major Events:

Please refer to the daily forecasts for all economic data releases for each day, with details and forecast.

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 
 
 
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Mar. 08

12:00

 

GBP

 
 
 
Interest Rate Decision

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 
 
 
Interest Rate Decision

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 
Initial Jobless Claims

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 
 
 
ECB President Draghi Speaks

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 
 
 
Chinese CPI (YoY)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 
Nonfarm Payrolls

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 
Trade Balance

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 
Unemployment Rate

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 
 
 
Building Approvals (MoM)

0.9%

 

2.1%

 

-1.0%

 
 

 

AUD

 
 
 
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ)

-0.3%

 

3.9%

 

14.6%

 
 

 

INR

 
 
 
Indian Trade Balance

-14.8B

 

-11.0B

 

-12.7B

 
 

 

CHF

 
 
 
GDP (QoQ)

0.1%

 

-0.1%

 

0.3%

 
 

 

GBP

 
 
 
Nationwide HPI (MoM)

0.6%

 

0.3%

 

-0.3%

 
 

 

CHF

 
 
 
SVME PMI

49.0

 

48.5

 

47.3

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 
French Manufacturing PMI

50.0

 

50.2

 

50.2

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 
German Manufacturing PMI

50.2

 

50.1

 

50.1

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 
Manufacturing PMI

49.0

 

49.0

 

49.0

 
 

 

PLN

 
 
 
Polish GDP (YoY)

4.3%

 

4.2%

 

4.2%

 
 

 

GBP

 
 
 
Manufacturing PMI

51.2

 

52.0

 

52.0

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 
CPI (YoY)

2.7%

 

2.6%

 

2.6%

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 
Unemployment Rate

10.7%

 

10.4%

 

10.6%

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

0.2%

 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 
 

 

CAD

 
 
 
Current Account

-10.3B

 

-9.6B

 

-12.3B

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 
Personal Spending (MoM)

0.2%

 

0.4%

 

0.0%

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 
Initial Jobless Claims

351K

 

353K

 

353K

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 
Continuing Jobless Claims

3402K

 

3400K

 

3404K

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 
ISM Manufacturing Index

52.4

 

54.6

 

54.1

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

KRW

 
 
 
South Korean CPI (YoY)

3.1%

 

3.5%

 

3.4%

 
 

 

JPY

 
 
 
Unemployment Rate

4.6%

 

4.5%

 

4.6%

 
 

 

JPY

 
 
 
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

-0.3%

 

-0.4%

 

-0.4%

 
 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05 10:10 Norway Bond auction

Mar 06 10:10 Greece Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06 10:15 Austria Bond auction

Mar 06 10.30 UK Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Mar 07 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07 10.30 UK Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08 16:00 US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

USD/CHF Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 Name  S3  S2  S1  Pivot  R1  R2  R3

 Classic
0.9000
0.9032
0.9086
0.9118
0.9172
0.9204
0.9258

 Fibonacci
0.9032
0.9065
0.9085
0.9118
0.9151
0.9171
0.9204

 Camarilla
0.9116
0.9124
0.9132
0.9118
0.9148
0.9156
0.9164

 Woodie's
-
0.9038
0.9097
0.9124
0.9183
0.9210
-

 DeMark's
-
-
0.9188
0.9126
0.9102
-
-