USD/CHF struggled to take out 55 days EMA and retreated towards the end of the week. The development suggests that deeper retreat and lengthier consolidations would likely be seen in near term. Though, there is no change in the mildly bullish view. Fall from 1.0065 was completed and a short term bottom is at least formed at 0.9300. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, fall from 1.1729 might be finished too. We'd expect current retreat from 0.9782 to be contained well above 0.9300 and bring another rise and above 0.9782 will target a test on 1.0065 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 0.9300 raised that possibly that a medium term bottom is formed already. This is supported by the strong rebound from 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729, as well as bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9711) will affirm this bullish case and target 1.0065 resistance for confirmation. Break there should confirm that start of a medium term rally. Before that, recent down trend could still continue with another low below 0.9300. We'll pay close attention to the eventual structure of the rise from 0.9300 to adjust our view.

In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.

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