USD/CHF recovers mildly after dipping to 0.9389 last week. Nevertheless, another fall remains in favor as long as 0.9520 support turned resistance holds. Current decline from 0.9782 is still in progress to 0.9300 low. Break there will bring down trend resumption towards 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, above 0.9520 support turned resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 0.9686 resistance. Break there will revive the case that USD/CHF has bottomed out at 0.9300 and will bring stronger rally.
In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 55 days EMA argues that 0.9300 might not be the bottom yet. USD/CHF's long term down trend would still continue further. Decisive break of 0.9300 will target 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, sustained break of 1.0065 resistance is still needed to confirm medium term bottoming or outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.