After edging lower to 0.9329 last week, USD/CHF staged a strong rebound to close at 0.9549. The break of the near term falling channel suggests that choppy fall from 0.9782 has completed at 0.9329 already. More important, the structure suggests that it's merely a correction to rise from 0.9300. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 0.9686 resistance first. Break will argue that rebound from 0.9300 is resuming for 1.0065 key resistance. On the downside, though, below 0/9465 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9300/9329 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, questions remain on whether USD/CHF has made a medium term bottom at 0.9300 after hitting 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729. Bullish convergence condition in 4 daily MACD does suggest so but the failure to sustain above 55 days EMA argues otherwise. Focus will be on 0.9782 resistance. Break there will now strongly suggest that 0.9300 is a medium term bottom and strong rally should be seen through 1.0065 resistance. However, break of 0.9329 will dampen the bullish case and bring down trend resume towards 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.