USD/CHF's rise from 0.9329 extended further last week and is back pressing 0.9782 resistance. As noted before, rebound from 0.9300 should be resuming. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and sustained break of 0.9782 will pave the way towards 1.0065 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9678 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 0.9523 support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong close above 55 days EMA on Friday affirm the view that USD/CHF has made a medium term bottom at 0.9300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, after hitting 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729. Decisive break of 0.9783 resistance will confirm this case and bring rally through 1.0065 resistance to 38.2% retracement of 1.1729 to 0.9300 at 1.0228 next.

In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.

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