USD/CHF's fall from 0.9774 accelerated to as low as 0.9436 last week. The development suggests that recent price actions from 0.9300 are merely consolidations in the larger down trend and has possibly finished with three waves to 0.9774 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9300 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9538 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 0.9774 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF failed to sustain above 55 days EMA again and recent development suggests that price actions from 0.9300 are merely consolidations in the larger down trend. That is, 0.9300 is not yet the bottom. Outlook will now be cautiously bearish as long as 0.9774 resistance holds. Decisive break of 0.9300 will confirm down trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.

In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.

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