USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9233 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations should be seen first. But upside is expected to be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9424) and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 0.9300 support indicates that longer term down trend has resumed. Below 0.9233 should target 100% projection of 1.0065 to 0.9300 from 0.9774 at 0.9009, which coincides with major medium term target.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.9300 support confirms resumption of the long term decline from 2010 high of 1.1729. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.

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