USD/CHF's recovery last week was limited at 0.9328, below 4 hours 55 EMA. Subsequent sharp fall argues that recent decline from 0.9774 might be resuming. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside for 0.9201. Break will confirm fall resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0065 to 0.9300 from 0.9774 at 0.9009, which coincides with major medium term target. On the upside, above 0.9328 will bring more consolidations. But after all, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9774 to 0.9201 at 0.9420 and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, long term decline from 2010 high of 1.1729 is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.