USD/CHF's upside momentum was not too convincing last week but it did manage to extend recent rally to as high as 0.9315. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.9145 minor support holds. Rebound from 0.7065 is still in progress for 161.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.8246 from 0.7710 at 0.9621 next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9145 will indicate that a short term top is likely formed and should flip bias back to the downside for 0.8647 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. Such rebound would possibly extend to 0.9916/1.1730 resistance zone. But strong resistance should be seen there and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8246 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and should turn outlook bearish for a retest on this low.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

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