USD/CHF's pull back from 0.9315 extended further last week after brief consolidations and reached as low as 0.8805 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and the current fall should target 0.8647 (100% projection of 0.9315 to 0.8880 at 0.9082 at 0.8647) and possibly below. But still, we're expecting strong support above 0.8246 (50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9315 at 0.8190) to contain downside and bring resumption of rebound from 0.7065 eventually. On the upside, above 0.9082 will flip bias back to the upside and target a retest on 0.9315 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. Such rebound would possibly extend to 0.9916/1.1730 resistance zone. But strong resistance should be seen there and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8246 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and should turn outlook bearish for a retest on this low.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

/

/

/

/