USD/CHF's pull back from 1.0506 was contained at 1.0278 after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.0506 at 1.0281 and 55 days EMA and turned sideway. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.0278 will indicate that correction from 1.0506 is still in progress and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for for deeper decline. but still, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring resumption of whole rise from 0.9916. on the upside, above 1.0420 minor resistance will be the first signal that correction from 1.0506 has finished. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the upside for 1.0506 first. Break will confirm rally resumption to 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.
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