USD/CHF's choppy correction continued last week and dipped further to 1.0215 last week. Further decline is still mildly in favor as long as 1.0383 resistance holds but after all, we'd expect downside of the consolidation to be contained by support zone of 1.0175 and 61.8% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.0506 at 1.0141 and bring resumption of rise from 0.9916. Above 1.0383 will argue that the correction has finally completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.0506 first and then 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1021). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.