USD/CHF surged to as high as 1.0494 last week but lost momentum ahead of 1.0506 resistance and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, current development indicates that whole rise from 0.9919 should be resuming. Hence, downside of the retreat from 1.0494 should be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0506 will target 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.0996). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 1.0131 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for another low below 0.9916.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.