USD/CHF's strong last week suggests that pull back from 0.9315 might be finished at 0.8567 already. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for 0.8960 this week. Break will affirm this case and should target 0.9315 resistance next. Though, below 0.8761 will in turn indicate that recovery from 0.8567 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for this support.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA raises the possibility that such rebound is finished at 0.9315 already. Focus is turned back to 0.8246 support. Break there should bring retest of 0.7065 low. Nevertheless, there is still prospect of another rise as long as 0.8246 support holds. Above 0.9315 will target 50% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9398 and above. But even in that case, strong resistance should be seen below 0.9916 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement at 0.9948) to limit upside.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

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