USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9235 last week. Even though upside momentum as not too convincing, there is no sign of near term reversal yet. Further rally is still in favor with 0.8953 support intact. Above 0.9235 will extend the rebound from 0.8567 to 0.9315 resistance. However, note again that the structure of the rebound from 0.8567 is still corrective looking. Below 0.8953 will suggest that such rebound is finished and should flip bias back to the downside for 0.8567 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. While further rise is likely, we'd expect strong resistance at 0.9916 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 0.8567 will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and will bring another fall back to 0.7710/8246 to extend the consolidation.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

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