USD/CHF's retreat was contained at 1.0608 last week after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA and resumed recent rally to as high as 1.0826. Initial bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to medium term trend line resistance at 1.0903 next. On the downside, below 1.0704 will turn intraday bias neutral but short term outlook will remains bullish as long as 1.0608 support holds. However, break of 1.0608 will indicate that a short term top is in place and deeper pull back could then be seen to 1.0131/0506 support zone before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, medium term correction from 1.2296 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0903) will further affirm this case and should target 161.8% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0506 from 1.0131 at 1.1086 next. On the downside, break of 1.0131 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, another rise is still expected even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.