USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | November 26 2011 10:47 AM

USD/CHF rose to as high as 0.9330 last week and the break of 0.9315 resistance confirmed resumption of the whole rebound from 0.7065 low. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 50% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9398 and above. On the downside, below 0.9235 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 0.9084 is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish for further rise.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Hence, strong resistance is expected at next cluster level at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948, 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9315 from 0.8567 at 0.9958) to limit upside and bring reversal. Though, break of 0.8567 is needed to confirm completion of rebound from 0.7065, otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

USD/CHF