USD/CHF rose further to as high as 1.0897 last week but failed to sustain above medium term falling trend line and retreated sharply. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Some sideway consolidations could be seen but after all, another rise is still in favor as long as 1.0646 support holds. Sustained trading above the trend line resistance will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0506 from 1.0131 at 1.1086 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 1.0646 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper pull back towards 1.0506 resistance turned support.
In the bigger picture, medium term correction from 1.2296 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0866) will further affirm this view. In such case, we'd be looking at stronger rise to 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. On the downside, break of 1.0131 support is needed to invalidate this bullish view. Otherwise, another rise is still expected even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.