USD/CHF dipped to as low as 0.9065 last week and indicated that a short term top is formed at 0.9330. However, no follow through selling was seen and the pair quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more consolidations. On the downside, break of 0.9065 will affirm the case that rally from 0.8567 is finished at 0.9330 and thus, flip bias to the downside for 0.8761/8960 support zone. On the upside hand, break of 0.9330 will revive bullish case that whole rise from 0.7065 is still in progress and should target 50% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9398 and above.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Hence, strong resistance is expected at next cluster level at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948, 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9315 from 0.8567 at 0.9958) to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 0.8567 support will complete a double top reversal pattern (0.9315, 0.9330) and should mark the completion of whole rebound form 0.7065.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

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