USD/CHF's rebound from 1.0506 extended further to as high as 1.0750 last week but lost steam since then and retreated sharply. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.0750 first. Nevertheless, we'd expect downside to be contained well above 1.0546 support and bring rise resumption. ABove 1.0750 will target 1.0890 resistance next. Break will affirm the case that rise medium term rise from 0.9916 is resuming for another high above 1.0897.
In the bigger picture, medium term correction from 1.2296 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0818) will further affirm this view. In such case, we'd be looking at stronger rise to 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. On the downside, sustained break of rising trend line support (now at 1.0526) will suggest that rise from 0.9916 is completed. The three wave corrective structure will in turn argue that another low could be seen below 0.9916 before USD/CHF makes a bottom.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before taking a stance.