Despite diving to as low as 1.0434, USD/CHF's rebounded was very strong and mixed up the outlook. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor as long as 1.0750 resistance holds. Below 1.0537 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and further break of 1.0434 will confirm that whole fall from 1.0897 has resumed for 1.0131 support next. On the upside, though, break of 1.0750 will indicate that fall from 1.0897 has finished and will bring retest of this high instead.

In the bigger picture, the deeper than expected fall from 1.0897 mixed up the outlook. Rebound from 0.9916 is so far in three wave structure only and was limited by medium term falling trend line. Thus there is no confirmation of bottoming yet. The break of near term rising trend line also raised the possibility that rise from 0.9916 has completed at 1.0897 already. Break of 1.0131 support will confirm this bearish case and indicate that long term down trend is resuming for another low below 0.9916. On the upside, however, break of 1.0750 resistance will reaffirm the case that rise from 0.9916 is still in progress and is resuming long term rally from 0.9634 for another high above 1.2296.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before taking a stance.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF