USD/CHF's rebound from 1.0434 extended further to as high as 1.0785 last week and the break of 1.0750 resistance suggest that correction from 1.0897 has completed with three waves down to 1.0434 already. The corrective structure in turn argue that rise from 0.9916 is still in progress. Though, with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral and we'd see some retreat first. Downside should be contained by 1.0582 support and bring rally resumption and above 1.0785 will target a retest on 1.0897.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.0897 was deeper than expected, the three wave corrective structure reaffirmed the view that rise from 0.9916 is still in progress. Break of 1.0897 will confirm this case and also have USD/CHF sustain above medium term falling trend line. This will in turn affirm the case that correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916 and will pave the wave for another high above 1.2296. On the downside, though, break of 1.0434 will invalidate this view and turn outlook mixed.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before taking a stance.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF