The strong rebound from near term falling trend line argues that USD/CHF's pull back from 0.9594 has already completed at 0.9406 last week. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 0.9594 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole rally from 0.7065 and should target 0.9916 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9406 will delay the bullish case and extend the consolidation instead. But after all, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9304 support holds.

In the bigger picture,we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Hence, strong resistance is expected at next cluster level at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948, 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9315 from 0.8567 at 0.9958) to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 0.8567 support should mark the completion of whole rebound form 0.7065 and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

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