USD/CHF rose further to as high as 1.0923 last week but failed to sustain above 1.0897 resistance and retreated. A short term top might be in place and some more consolidations would be seen in near term Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0699 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0923 will confirm that whole rally from 1.0434 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1200 next. On the downside, however, sustained break of 1.0699 will mix up the outlook and turn focus back to 1.0434 support instead.

In the bigger picture, last week's break of 1.0897 affirm the case that medium term rise from 2009 low of 0.9916 is still in progress. Also, note that the sustained trading above medium term falling trend line allows affirm the view that whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. We'll now stay bullish as long as 1.0434 support holds and expect the rise from 0.9916 to extend towards 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. However, break of 1.0434 support will mix up the outlook again.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before taking a stance.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF