USD/CHF's retreat from 1.1244 was contained at 1.0922 and then rose sharply to as high as 1.1335 to resume the whole rally from 1.0434. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1673 next. On the downside, below 1.1189 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0922 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above the medium term falling trend line affirms our view that whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. Rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 and should now target a retest on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone and then 100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.2296 from 0.9916 at 1.2578. On the downside, break of 1.0434 support is needed to indicate that such rise from 0.9916 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF