USD/CHF recovered after initial dip to 0.9089 last week and the development indicates that a temporary low is already in place. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But with 0.9262 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and recent fall from 0.9594 is still in progress. Below 0.9089 will extend the decline to 0.9065 support. Break will target 0.8567 key support level next. However, note that break of 0.9262 resistance will indicate short term bottoming on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9594 to 0.9089 at 0.9401 and above.
In the bigger picture,we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Below 0.8567 support will indicate such rebound is finished and bring retest of 0.7065 low. Above 0.9594 will bring another rise. But after all, strong resistance is expected at next cluster level at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948, 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9315 from 0.8567 at 0.9958) to limit upside and bring reversal. The long term down trend is expected to resume later after consolidation from 0.7065 completes.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.